Tips van: luwiquatorze

2H bet

Philadelphia/ Atlanta 2H over 30.

Zie hier mijn write-up voor de bovenstaande 2 picks.

Won't do this for every release, won't do this every week, but here's my analysis of the value for the TNF game:

Thursday Night Football:
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

- Early line released before the season: Denver -1.
- Sunday opener: KC -1.5 with an O/U of 46.

Analysis of Kansas City:
- They performed very well vs a stout defensive Houston front. Andy Reid deployed all kinds of plays and really went into his arsenal. He had Alex Smith run a couple of read option plays, but also split 3 receivers wide and went for the deep bomb. In the first half, the ball was fairly distributed over his TE's, RB's and WR's, with Smith also gaining a couple of first downs on designed runs. Especially in the first half, Houston had trouble defending the quick releases. It was all part of Reid's plan. Smith had to release the ball before the Houston pass-rush could get to him. This meant mostly 3-step and 5-step drops, with the aforementioned read/option plays mixed in. Smith's release time was well under 2.5 seconds.
In the second half, sitting on a 3 possession lead, they mostly went for rush plays, as to bleed the clock and shorten the game. It was also Houston's 2nd half adjustments that kept KC from scoring. They sent less rushers and kept more players back to clog the lanes. The easy gains for Charles and Davis were gone. No more dump-offs from Smith to his RB's in the flat.
-While it was a solid win by Kansas City, their life was made easy by 2 Houston turnovers in their own Red Zone. Both led to TD's for KC as they had to march less than 20 yards on both of them. The Chiefs actually only scored 13 points on long drives. Kind of a low number knowing that a much better defense is coming to town this Thursday.
- KC's special teams unit was consistently able to pin Houston deep back into their own territory. This is an excellent unit.

Analysis of Denver:
- Part of the reason why the look-ahead line was Denver -1 and the real opening line swung to KC -1.5 is the concern over Manning's arm strength. The losses and subsequently weakening of his offensive line isn't helping matters either. As I re-watched the game, it was very obvious that Manning is in trouble. He's putting up more wobblers than before, and as he's using he's his full body to get some zip on the passes (legs + torso) he's also telegraphing the plays. Demaryius Thomas is still an elite talent and will get separation from average backs, but the pinpoint 'manning-accuracy' wasn't there in their game vs Baltimore. Because it's a short week for them, I don't see him fixing this quickly enough.....if it's fixable at all at his age.
-Denver's defense was better than advertised and held the Ravens to 6 offensive points. As the game is played in the loudest stadium of the NFL, I believe Manning will have trouble with his cadence and the weak offensive line. I'm expecting more false-starts that will help KC kill Denver drives. It's a pretty green Offensive Line he has in front of him. Denver itself scored 12 points on offense (4 FG's), but 2 of those were 56 and 57 yard makes by McManus. I don't think Denver will try from the same distance as they're not playing in thin air. This would mean more punts. If they do try, there's a higher probability of him missing some of the long tries. So far the weather outlook has the chance of rain at 20% and the humidity at 66%. With windgusts up to 23 mph, not even the extra-points are a gimme. (if they score any TD's)

Line-analysis:
The opener was quickly bet to KC -3 form -1.5. It's getting heavily juiced right now as the books don't want to give the hook on what looks to be a lowscoring affair. The probability of a FG deciding the game is very high, as they've been taking a whole lot of money on the under.
I mentioned before the weekend that I was expecting a low scoring affair and also a low line. Some-how the books opened the line at 46 and it got pounded down, before settling at 41.5, 42. I firmly believe there will be more money coming in on the under. Both these defenses are too good for a 41.5. Especially with all the trouble the offenses have. (KC didn't score in the 2nd half).

Only thing that can kill this under is a bunch of pick-six's and special team TD's.
Adding another unit at:
DEN/KC U42

WK2:

264 NO -9 vs TB @1.91
277 STL -3 vs WSH @1.80

6-point teasers:
SF +11.5 with DET +8.5 @1.91
CHI +7.5 with ATL +8.5 @1.91
MIA PK with PHI -0.5 @1.91

eerder deze week getipt:
Buffalo +1 @1,96
Tennessee +2.5 @1,91

half time. Het ziet er niet best uit voor je bets . Hou vol wat je zelf al zegt Long term (y)

Een ouderwets pak slaag. Pijnlijk.
Behalve de Denver/KC wedstrijd, waar er 3 special-team-touchdowns waren, wat extreem uitzonderlijk is, zat ik er bij de andere volledig naast.

Daarnaast is het een vreemd begin van het seizoen, In de eerste week waren het voornamelijk favorieten die de spread gecovered hebben, terwijl in week2 het voornamelijk underdogs waren die wonnen. Om je een idee te geven, de meeste 'Survivor-poules' in de USA zijn al zo'n beetje klaar na 2 weken. In een Survivor-poule moet je 1 pick per week maken, als je wint ga je door, als je verliest lig je er uit. Wie als laatste over is, wint de de pot. De resultaten waren zo 'vreemd' om het zo te noemen de afgelopen twee weken dat er in de meeste poules al niemand over is.

WK3:
301 WSH +4
461 PIT -1.5
473 CIN +3
482 ARI -6.5
485 BUF +3 -115

471 JAX/ NE O47
481 SF/ ARI O43.5
461 PIT/ STL O47

In tegenstelling tot eerdere weken zijn alle spreads en totals nog goed te vinden en is er deze week nog geen grote line-movement te bespeuren. De markt is een tikkeltje terughoudender geworden.

Allemaal @1,91

Monday Night Football:

2H bet,

NYJ/IND U24 @1,91

3rde opeenvolgende week met dikke line-value.

1 move tegen:
PIT van -1.5 naar -1

1 bleef hetzelfde:
ARI -6.5

6 moves waarbij ik de betere spread heb:
WSH +4 naar +3.5 (donderdag gespeeld, verloren)
CIN +3 naar +1.5
BUF +3 naar +1.5
JAX/ NE O47 naar O49
SF/ ARI O43.5 naar O45
PIT/ STL O47 naar O48.5

Hopen dat het beter gaat dan vorige week.

7-2 laatste 9, gaat alweer de goede kant op

NFL WK4

BAL/PIT U44.5 (Donderdag)
JAX +9
BUF -6
ARI -6.5